That will be with Syria?

This article was published 25.10.2011. But all written is absolutely not outdated. Link

The most burning question of today's is escalation of tension on Middle East and event in Syria. Which will continuation of the Arabic spring be, will there be new victims, repeating the fate of Qaddafi, or development of events will go on other scenario?

 Because to analyse geopolitical events exceptionally on news ribbons extremely difficultly, my political analysis most successfully shape in form a bet. Each, who wants, has the opportunity to put "against" and to specify on my possible errors and miscalculations.

 So, disposition. Otherwise speaking, who are parties concerned, to whom and that exactly interesting.

1. Russia. For Russia support of Syria it is a chance radically to change an idea about this country, as about ordinary and second-rate, a long ago leaving off to influence serious role on a world arena. Successful taking of threat of aggression to NATO from Syria, together with the opposite result of events in Libya that ignored a timely rate on Russia, inevitably will change a status quo on a world chess-board.

 While vice versa, overthrow of operating power of Syria, without regard to indisputable support of Russia, loss at the Mediterranean seaside means very substantial geopolitical losses Russia of only naval base for our country. If more exactly, then the affected of Russia zone actually will be locked exceptionally within the framework of the former USSR.

Therefore rates in this game for Russia much higher, than banal "scorness" or great-power ambitions, this approaching of Global war directly to our borders. Exactly as in 1938-41.

And rates are very high, then it is possible to expect an adequate fight from the side of Russia

2. NATO. For the West, anglo-saxons or NATO the rate is very high too. Violence above Qaddafi left the ambivalent impression: all put aims were attained although, war in Libya showed subzero efficiency, money-losing of both military machine and revolutionary political technology. A final victory remained after hits, subornation and treachery, but not after literate organisation and ideology.

And only exhibitory victory over Syria will allow to the USA to take revenge to prove that the weakness shown in Libya was a not weakness, and only peaceful nature of it, that hopes on the revival of Russia are insignificant, that management centre by the world still in the USA.

 It is therefore necessary to expect, what the USA will not step back, and will get things done all possible methods.

 It is here necessary to do small historical retreat. Russia first appeared at the Mediterranean seaside at the end of 18 century due to the merits of such great people, as Aleksej Orlov, Grigory Potemkin, Fedor Ushakov. A role of her was thus, as well as now liberation and peaceful, the population of Greece and different islands not very enthusiastically perceived the of that time "French spring".

  It was obviously to the peasants, simple people and even considerable part of local aristocracy, that French revolutionary phraseology does not carry for them no release from local oppress, vice versa, frenchmen most successfully came to an understanding just with most worst from them.

A yet less delight for the Orthodox habitants of Greece and near-by islands a prospect caused to be the conquered turks, becoming famous at that time mass inhuman executing of adherents of different creed.

 For this reason a population repeatedly asked the Russian military leaders to take them in eternal citizenship to the Russian emperor, they and their children kissed the hands of the Russian soldiers-liberators, Russian coat of arms on their satchels.

  However, it was not fated the hopes of these near to us on Christ people to come true. Russia was so able not to become stronger in Christian Greece, in spite of of that time mass enthusiasm of Greeks. Thus exactly such enthusiasm embraced Ukrainians, Balts and many other people, though that do not prevent them to pour dirt on the Russia in our time. Although such countries, as Ukraine, Latvia, Tajikistan and many other arose up on the map of the world only on good will of Russia.

  Exactly this historical analogy must cool the ardor of patriots ready to climb in a heat for the sake of poor "Syrians". It is not Enough to protect Syrians and remove all attacks of adversaries, it is needed yet, that in fifty years Syrians did not tell to each other of fairy-tale about that, how did not drive them with a geopolitical partner, what foolish their fathers were.

It is needed to compel Syrians too to become taut and to protect their houses, rather than just to hope on blood of Russian Ivan. And differently blood of our fellows will flow only because to Syrians fates of their own country are indifferent.

 For more detailed histories I send to  E.V.Tarle ("Admiral Ushakov at the Mediterranean seaside", "Chesman fight", "Russian fleet and foreign policy").

3. Turkey and Iran.

Interests of these players are yet more certain. Each of them now applies on a leading role in the moslem world, and everybody each other interferes with. Therefore to use such unique possibility for the receipt of advantage above an opponent, as occupation of Syria, Iraq and any other, that so "successfully" lies badly, the both this country would be good motivated.

Actually it and there is a fuse of the large Near-Eastern conflict. Thus, certainly, it is impossible not to take into account interests of Israel, that in a long-term plan suppose complete control above Middle East. Control at that there will be the world and rest in the countries of  Levant, as in Canada or Australia, where wars were never not. Simply for this purpose all aborigines need to be destroyed, as a last resort to drive away in reservations.

And by such faithful method of elimination of aborigines, from times of Chingachgook and other Mohicans, there is their fight among yourselves for the own scalps.

Thus Iran obviously here has preferable position, because Turkey is the most democratic and spoiled country from the probably entire countries of region. And and most weak and weak-willed, in spite of powerful financial and soldiery resources. And, in addition, Turkey is an old ally of anglo-saxon, and such unions it is known, has a bad end usually.

It is now possible to pass actually to the analysis of optimal variants of strategy.

For Russia a direct slap in the face will be open aggression of countries NATO in friendly to Russia country. If it will happen, and Russia will suffer, then the "return of king" is abolished.

It will not be therefore. Announcement of "non flying" zone above Syria in a modern political situation is equivalent to declaration of war to Russia. And to the surrender last, if she it will swallow.

The airplanes of NATO will not bomb Syria. And that is all, that we are under an obligation to do for the Syrian people. To defend oneself from hits, they must Iranian or Turkish aggression itself. And money and still human resources they have, not large problem to collect the pair of millions of draftees. If they really want to fight. And with such force, and main firmness, neither Turkey nor Iran will manage. Turkey from mollycoddled, Iran from strong religion.

 However, a faith in firmness of Syrians for me is not present. A scenario is most credible, that they will consider for blessing to accept citizenship faithful and outwardly such "correct", "anti-american" Iran. That in this case, appears at the right time in the right place with a piano in bushes.

  Here such a chess party. Thus checks king of Israel looms up in the rear of figures, but it is a theme of separate party already, time did not yet come to her.

And questions for a bet:

1. Whether a non flying zone will be declared above Syria. (Answers "yes", or not", case, if full-sized war of Russia and NATO begins as a result of announcement of such zone, we classify similarly, as no).

2. Will there be in the near time a sharp drop in temperature of relations of Russia and Iran the peak of that liquidation of the Russian military base will become to Syria and transformation of Iran in the local geopolitical centre of force, like the similar projects of Napoleon and Hitler? (Answers "and or no")

(As formal reasons of such drop in temperature a situation simply invites to in IAEA, where at Russia ungrateful role - and a nuclear weapon in the hands of new Napoleon giving is impossible, and against friend fighting is not good, even he is slightly inadequate. The second reason is abandonment of Russia from the armed interference with defence of Syria, consequently, true believer moslems must decide this problem, and Russians, naturally, simply are afraid of the USA. Unlike threatening Ahmadinejad, that publicly the USA swears at, and, hero and nothing is afraid of.

Here on this rubbish us and gather to conduct. And getting on here nothing it is impossible. And getting on here nothing it is impossible. At least, I do not see a method, to defend Syria against the desire of Syrians)