The main
achievement of 2012 year was that it appeared fully peaceful and safe. In spite
of very high tension on Middle East, on the borders of China, Japan and Korea,
on the repeated threats and promises to inflict blow, all of it appeared a
bluff.
Therefore
a basic wish on 2012 came true in full:
Although,
certainly, the prospect of new world war diminished not at all, vice versa, if
in November-December, 2011 it many seemed to a leisure device, then there is
not now, perhaps, such analyst that would not take into account war among the
credible scenarios of the nearest future.
It is
necessary to name castling the second by value event in Kremlin, that on a
background the complete failure of white bands revolution testifies that in
Russia destructive processes were fully neutralised.
Third by
value there is a successful defensive of Syria from the international bands of
terrorists and gentlemen successes that was not able to score a smallest
success and influence. The same as and absence above Syria of non-flying zone.
Thus all provocations in Palestine, Iraq, Turkey, Lebanon and Syria did not
result in escalation of military conflict and destruction of equilibrium on
Middle East.
Fourth.
The ebb of dollar of the USA, that is presented as a promissory, budgetary or
consumer crisis, proceeds. Nevertheless, FRS manages by means of having a
special purpose QE to save the quite good enough economic indicators of GDP and
unemployment of the USA on a background more "cooling" off world
state of affairs.
Thus
epoch of cheap oil and gold, and similarly prospect of increase of taxes for
rich in the USA become the more real.
Fifth.
Elections of the first persons happened in Georgia, USA, Russia, Venezuela,
China, Korea; parliamentary - in Ukraine. Elections fastened the current
placing of forces actually, i.e. defined the list of basic acting persons on
the nearest interelective period. But, as well as envisaged by a forecast on
2012, not at all changed a status quo, thus not only top but also all list of
key players.
Therefore
by a main result 2012 year there is battle draw game. Our opponents were not
able to score even a minimum success even on the most second-rate direction,
while we did the main castling successfully, and similarly confirmed success
with Ukraine and in Venezuela. And considerably strengthened the authority on
events in Syria.
It is
necessary from here, that "white" nothing more remains, how to
confess complete uneffectiveness of the current strategy and pass to
fundamentally another methods of fight. Therefore a basic prognosis on 2013 is
an end of current "restart".
In
particular about it Geydar Jemal writes (reference),
Putin talks about it, puzzled: "I do not understand that we need to
overload". I.е. the
West tries to accuse Putin at the end of restart which was stucked to him and
now tries to liquidate it after the lack of need.
But
irony of this party consists in that the USA it is advantageous to play off
friendship and mutual understanding with Russia as possible longer, the while
sown monsters of islamists and Chinese imperialism will not ripen finally. And
unrestrained and foolish baba Clinton hardly not spoiled all game.
Therefore
no cooling of relations and Russia the USA will BE! The USA, squeezing teeth,
will stand all zigzags and pirouettes of Moscow, hastily preparing next Hitler
to us, thus in two copies. And it is unique possibility of Russia to conduct
deep internal reorganisation. Thus such second chance already will not be.
Now to the item by item :
1. The USA will almost servilely flirt with
Russia, going to the numberless amount of concessions, especially in part of
ratings and commercial activity, traditional liberal criticism of Russia will
go rather from the side of countries of Europe and Japan, which would be "unagreeable"
with the USA.
2. The key question of survival of our country
will be ability of power to conduct the processes of nationalisation of
property, creation fundamentally of another terms of public motivation,
productivity and investment possibilities. It means inevitable retirement of D.А.Medvedev and his liberal block,
thus, the sooner the better.
3. One of central events 2013 year elections in
Iran, as a result of that changing of basic political vector of this country (a
main enemy is the not USA, and Russia) will be very credible, will become.
Basic efforts of State Department and CIA will be concentrated exactly in this
direction.
4. On Middle East a military conflict will
begin with irreparable global consequences. The basic beneficiary of this
conflict new Islamist Hitler will become, probably is Iran.
An
anglo-saxon, Israel and Europe, will be (to seem?) in this conflict the injured
side.
5. Syria will fall from a "friendly
help" from the side of Iran. It will be presented as a brotherly
association and rescue.
Thus
Iran will appear the hostage of the militant Islamist groupments, though it
will seem outside, that exactly he manages them for creation of sovereign moslem
civilization, but a tail here will wave a dog.
I.е. an anti-russian vector Iran will
choose, avoiding own elimination the rising wave of islam, that he will prefer
to straddle and direct in a safe place, but not stop it with a risk for life.
6. It is necessary to expect the increase of
provocations from the side of China, here the USA will be aims to pull in
Russia in defence of Seoul and Tokyo under pretence of decision of problem of
Kuril Islands and other concessions. (The "USA hang around from the heap of
problems, not to pride" - such is essence of new strategy of the USA, that
will come on changing to the overload.)
7. An economic situation will be very not
stable, however after the decision of problem of anti-american Iran, oil will
begin sharply to fall in price. Basic legend explaining it is the phenomenon
slates will become.
Cheap oil will "save" the economy of
the developed countries from, seemed, to the inevitable recession.
8. Ukraine will enter the Customs union.
Exactly the Ukrainian unemployed persons will become the basic factor of
neutralization of the Chinese threat on Far East.
9. In Middle Asia the processes of islam and russophobe
will go out from under control. Exactly a permanent flashpoint will be formed
here, translating instability on territory of the former USSR. But in 2013 this
instability will be yet relatively small, her peak is expected later.
10. Calvary will proceed above betrayers and
killers. After Beresovsky and Tymoshenko a prosecution will reach and to М.S.Gorbachev.
11. A "budgetary precipice" will not
be. There will be transformation of the USA in yet more constabulary and
totalitarian state, like Europe in that a promissory crisis resulted only in
the yet severe loss of sovereignty of countries EU.
12. White bands revolution will be recorded in
new white emigration.
If this
prognosis seems too optimistic, it admits a situation, that a liberal block
will successfully continue to privatise Russia, lifting prices on all possible
services, communal flat, passage and foods. Accordingly, to no speech about the
processes of reunion will not go, Central Asia and Middle East will be lost.
Therefore, even if liberals will not pull in us
in the China-Japan gamble, Russia will go back to the state of times of Chechnya
wars, when control even of own territory was examined as success.
P.S. An analogy occurred regarding a restart.
If in an ordinary variant loaded the USA, and we was being embarked, then now
we will load just.
At least
for this purpose there are all geopolitical terms.
No comments:
Post a Comment