The bet on Medvedev

This article was published 02.11.2012. Link

  

 In spite of all evidence of this bet, to write him similarly heavily, as well as bet on Putin. Because a loss in this bet means not simply a defeat in one or another battle (as for example, in Libya), not simply unequivalent exchange or irretrievable loss of figure, but the most real and irrevocable mate.

 And in this case the self blogging of geopolitical analytic geometry loses the sense. (So, there was business, handed over nerves in March, 2011, when it seemed that Putin left from politics, and Russia chose the liberal way of development of Medvedev). While it became not clear that all of it - a thin game only. ("Putin throws down a mask")

  Nevertheless looked after changes in wastes from liberal ideology, different sort of monetarism  of bank-speculative recipes of treatment of economy, return of the traditional systems of education and going near the decision of problems of family, nationalization of mass-media and basic statefounded enterprises abandon the ambivalent impression.

There are convincing enough signs of both realisation of this state scenario and his complete ignoring, departure back, to the most reckless privatising and liberalisation, as if in the days of Gaydar and Chubays.

Certainly these processes can not proceed simultaneously, the moment of truth will come sooner or later. Is this the theme of this bet, however was it desirable on this theme, to give clear generalisation, go round her attention it would be simply wrong, which sense is then this blog in general?

I will mark that in sort a hypothesis allowed to ignore the theme of privatising that in the conditions of occupation (on terminology of E.Fedorov), i.e. complete prohibition on development of national enterprises, control of facilities of the state budget and banking system, an unique exit was creation of quasi-market private enterprises, and in essence maffia-gangster "roof", fully analogical western model or party-top-level system the USSR.

 A just the same model allows to explain as a calmness of Putin at Medvedev president’s times, his complete prevailing at the formal management of Dmitry Anatolievich, as well as promise to be not candidate after 2018. Why, if it is possible simply to appoint presidents, as it is done in the USA.

 It was especially hardly necessary to criticise Medvedev for position on Syria, for example, "What Medvedev is better than Каддафи", i.e. if help of Russia to Libya and could by virtue of a number of the reasons limit, then direct support of cross hike does not climb in no scopes.

  Nevertheless, fact that Dmitry Anatolievich so not decided to send Putin in retirement, although had on that all plenary powers, as well as international support, allowed nevertheless to say of a version about his conscious role the family jester, clown, playing off western public and holding our opponents from decisive actions against Russia, encouraging to meddle in different doubtful gambles. ("Medvedev: I cause a fire on itself").

  I consider confirmation of this version well too surplus foolishness of the separate saying of Medvedev (they do not cut an ear only to western public), as well as their relative harmlessness limited to mainly rending the air.

However  we lately have a sharp increase not only of offencive, but empty enough statements:

Medvedev accused Stalin of "war with own people"

Medvedev: guidance of the Stalin period was at war with the people

Medvedev complained on impossibility to bring Stalin to the account

The story element of the pension system itself did not justify is Medvedev

Medvedev: it is Needed to create world principles of work in the internet

Medvedev: Resource of authority of the first persons of the state must be used mildly

Russia will copy off a $33 million debt before the London club

but also fully material initiatives:

About absolute harm of paranoid fight against smoking (This project of law can serve as reason of height of social tension,  courts and trials)

Medvedev charged to sell three oilfields to the end of year

While Putin prefers a course on development of national enterprises:

Putin promised to start Shtockman to 2017

Thus all this activity takes place in a period, when Russia leaves from under control of the USA, i.e. when required the maximally concerted actions of power in Russia. In addition does the requirement of playing liberalisation become more far-fetched, - well who in the west in it will believe?

The theme of credible retirement of Medvedev became popular enough in a blogosphere, although as on me it is an argument against: too often dominant opinion appears wrong.

Is Scenario of Kremlin blitz: after Medvedev will copy off and Сердюкова?

Will Engage Putin the weeds away?

 And however I will take chance here to support a general trend. Thus decision here is that consideration about that S.Curginian talks a long ago: either power in Russia will proclaim the course of the hard state system and antiimperialism or people disappointed in her, power will be discredited by a collaboration with liberals and international bankers, and a country will become defenceless before an orange danger.

Think, this time came.

Thus excessive activity of Medvedev testifies either to the desire maximally to slur the liberal constituent of power, inflict a maximal damage (if to accept a version, that he is a patriot) to her or he really in time trouble tries to concentrate round itself the levers of management and faithful people, to resist to pressure of Putin.

Here are statements for a bet:

1. The period of diarchy will come to an end not later, than during a semiyear.

2. The valuable changing of elites comes in Russia, here liberal forces will fill up the rows of opposition.